“Foreign Education bill” put in backburner due to resistance. The HR Minister – Kapil Sibal blames opposition for holding up Education reforms
The minister says:
- Education needs public – private partnerships
- Education needs infra status
- India needs global skills and hence need foreign Universities Watch the interesting video at http://indiatoday.intoday.in/video/kapil-sibal-at-mail-today-education-conclave/1/214466.html
Kondratiev waves (also called supercycles, great surges, long waves, K-waves or the long economic cycle) are described assinusoidal-like cycles in the modern capitalist world economy. Averaging fifty and ranging from approximately forty to sixty years in length, the cycles consist of alternating periods between high sectoral growth and periods of relatively slow growth. Unlike the short-term business cycle, the long wave of this theory is not accepted by current mainstream economics.
The technological cycles can be labeled as follows:
- The Industrial Revolution—1771
- The Age of Steam and Railways—1829
- The Age of Steel and Heavy Engineering—1875
- The Age of Oil, Electricity, the Automobile and Mass Production—1908
- The Age of Information and Telecommunications—1971
Now the question is what is the next big wave ? To understand the outcome one must agree to the fact that we are at a recession period where in the Government’s expenditure outnumbers the Government’s income for most of the developed and developing nation. In addition, the Government is printing more fiat currencies to keep the interest rate low.
The buzz word that India will eventually become the biggest economies has been there for quite some time and let me add a few facts on India
- India is probably one of the first countries to recover from the recession. Watched like a hawk by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India could avoid excessive leverage and mortgage defaults, and hence went into recession with lesser burden. This also helped it recover faster.
- Demographers say the emerging world will stay young while the rich world ages. In 2020 the median age in India will be 28, compared with 38 in America, 45 in Western Europe and 49 in Japan. These factors will come into play in the shift of power from West to East in the next 40 years in the world.
- A rising young population, if proper skilled, can transform the economy with higher earnings, savings and investments. The urban population will double from the 2001 census figure of 290 million to perhaps 590 million by 2030. India has to spend USD 1.2 trillion on urban infrastructure, or at eight times today’s rate.
But the question is how will India grow? Companies in India will need to have skill manpower to compete in the Global world. India has skill shortages and developed nations have the technique / intelligence to develop these skills. Hence, I am of a firm view that any University / Vocational training institute which takes the lead in developing skills by collaborating up with the Indian Industries in India will surely gain not only monetary success but also will be able to ride the wave with great success.
Just recruiting students from India as a strategy is now outdated. It’s time for the Overseas Education providers to think out of the box and enter the growth stories of India as an engine of future growth.
Chuchill once said “the more you dig in the history, the farther you will have the vision for the future”
As I try to find the answer to the basic question on the future enrollments, I have come across to interesting facts / figures which is an eye opener for me.
It is natural for someone to believe that USA is the preferred destination and most of the students are opting to study in USA. The truth is, USA is not the preferred destination. Then will it be the U.K or Australia, again the answer is no. Then it could be Europe of New Zealand and once again the answer is negative. Then it must be that Indian students are studying at Indian Universities / Institutions. The answer is not really that too. Just look at the below comments:
• The top institutes, a majority of the 4,000-odd management institutes in India are facing an acute shortage of students, even a 50% drop in some cases,” says IIM Calcutta director Shekhar Chaudhuri.
• The number of people who actually took CAT – the entrance examination for the premier Indian Institutes of Management and more than a 100 other top institutes – was 1,85,000, compared with 1,86,229 students last year
• US-based Graduate Management Admission Council (GMAC), GMAC said while 2,58,192 students took the exam globally in 2010-11, the number of applicants was higher, at 2,63,979 in 2009-10. The number of Indians who took GMAT fell to 25,394 in 2010-11 from 30,633 in 2008-09.
• Some Indian management institutes are planning to lower their rigorous selection criteria for the next academic year to fill the seats, and are considering a relaxation in percentage cut-offs and a larger selection list.
• “Engineering graduates, who are already well paid, are now finding that they are not seeing any significant increase in salary by getting an MBA, unless it’s from a top school,” says Xavier Institute of Management, Bhubaneswar (XIMB) director PT Joseph. Even though XAT registrations are open till December,
Let’s focus on the numbers for different countries
Country USA Canada UK Germany Australia NZ
2007-08 37,890 3,153 27,000 3,572 47,638 4,790
2008-09 26,890 6,283 57,000 3,516 54,574 5,353
2009-10 25,783 12,000 41,350 4,070 12,483 6,801
So the big question is where are the Indian students and what are what are they looking for ? Here are the answers to the mystery:
• Global recession is forcing engineering students – one of the largest section of MBA aspirants – to go in for jobs immediately after graduation. Working executives are also thinking twice before pursuing an MBA.
• Most of the mid / small size Indian industries are joining hands and are recruiting students from the Indian campus before they even finish their courses.
• There has been very positive growth in the employment market in India during the first quarter of 2011 with considerable recruitment activity taking place. A wide number of vacancies exist in a range of sectors including IT, banking, government, postal and telecoms, engineering, medical, financial, insurance and automobile.
• I am sharing Industry wise skill requirements in India:
Industry Demand in Millions
Banking and finance 5
Based on the above facts it is very clear that an Indian student finds it easy to secure a job after completion of course and this is a new trend due to the economic activities around the country.
Recently, I had a privilege of having a chat with a Director of a prominent Education provider offering Education across various faculties. The recent Economic down turn and a conservative migration policy of various Governments have put many Education providers to scratch from the basics and draw a blue print on the way forward. During the interaction I was informed that a few Education providers are planning to reduce number of courses and reduce number of representatives which will indirectly reduce their overall costs. Always inquisitive my instant reaction was as to how this will reduce the cost? Though I did not receive a convincing answer and hence I thought let me put my feet in their shoes and try to find a convincing answer which catches the expectations and bottom line at the end of two years from now.
The phrase the Long Tail was first coined by Chris Anderson. Anderson argues that products in low demand or that have a low sales volume can collectively make up a market share that rivals or exceeds the relatively few current bestsellers and blockbusters, if the store or distribution channel is large enough. Where inventory storage and distribution costs are insignificant, it becomes economically viable to sell relatively unpopular products; however, when storage and distribution costs are high, only the most popular products can be sold. For example, a traditional movie rental store has limited shelf space, which it pays for in the form of building overhead; to maximize its profits, it must stock only the most popular movies to ensure that no shelf space is wasted. Because Netflix stocks movies in centralized warehouses, its storage costs are far lower and its distribution costs are the same for a popular or unpopular movie. Netflix is therefore able to build a viable business stocking a far wider range of movies than a traditional movie rental store. Those economics of storage and distribution then enable the advantageous use of the Long Tail: Netflix finds that in aggregate, “unpopular” movies are rented more than popular movies.
(An example of a power law graph showing popularity ranking. To the right is the long tail; to the left are the few that dominate. Notice that the areas of both regions match.)
Impact on the Education provider
I have tried to venture the long tail theory in the Education Industry. Just as the traditional warehouse store’s inventory is limited to the walls that contain such goods, the traditional on site academic institutions / colleges course catalog is limited by similar constraints like classroom space, faculty and course development expenses. For a warehouse store it means less prospective sells and for the on site academic institution means lower potential enrollments. Which also means that academic institutions / Universities / colleges must offer wide variety of course catalogs to expand its enrollment numbers. Any strategy of just focusing on a few courses or few Education representatives will deprive the students and many thousands of students will shift to the colleges and Universities searching for niche courses. Universities / colleges offering more diverse courses (i.e social networking administration, green business management, contemporary mathematics and so on) will be found more often online, making those Universities / colleges more competitive which will ultimately lead to more enrollments.
The same principal applies in appointing Education representatives by the Education provider. More the Education reps will ultimately lead to more enrollments and numbers.
Impact on the Education representative
I now explore the impact on the Education representatives while exploring the opportunities for the Education providers and its representatives. Just as the traditional warehouse store’s inventory is limited to the walls that contain such good, the Education representative offering few Education providers or a few courses will lead to lower potential enrollments. Hence, the strategy of marketing only a few courses or a few Education providers will enroll fewer students to the Education providers in long run. Hence, to catch the niche market the Education representative will have to expand its base and offer more courses with diverse Education providers in different geographical regions.
Way forward – World of e-learning
So how can an Education provider or the Education representative can increase the enrollment numbers without increasing the infrastructure and fixed costs. The answer is simple and that is web based courses for the Education provider and web based marketing for the Education reps who actively promote on the web. I am quiet amazed to read the number of certificate / online courses offered by http://gatlininternational.co.uk/catalogue Gatlin International are web based Education providers since 1994. Their courses have a niche market and their combined enrollments are more than the regular and popular courses. Time has come to change the mindset and re investigate the strategy before using the resources. Internet / web offers unlimited potential and in a flat world the niche / demand will keep changing with the economic scenario and one needs to be vigilant at this stage. My next blog Generation 3.0 will explore on the new world frontiers where we all are connected directly or indirectly and the world is emerging as a one big market.
Recently in the higher education segment, I have witnessed strategical developments which were unthinkable couple of years ago. This academic year Gujarat University for its Bachelors of Commerce students introduced a subject not even a topic but a full subject of 100 marks known as “Tally”. We all know that in Indian subcontinent Tally is popular accounting software which provides accounting solutions to approximately 20 lakh (2 million) small and mid segment companies. Till now Tally was taught as a vocational subject and today it is offered to degree students. Technically the trend should be that new innovations are taught at degree level and vice versa. However, here we can clearly see that contents of vocational courses are taught at a degree level to boost the employment after graduation.
My second observation is of L.D Engineering college which is a premiere institution offering Engineering courses in Western India. Till now it was a competitive struggle to secure admission at this premiere Engineering college. But this year there are approx 20% empty seats and I did a brief survey and found that most of the students are inclined to study short term courses leading to employment. There is strong view amongst the students that on completion of 4 years of degree we may be outdated as the industry progresses faster than the academic developments.
Both these incidents forced me a further investigate as to whether high education courses are in a bubble or are they too expensive in this economic scenario.
In 1988, the average tuition and fees for a four-year public university rang in at about $2,800, adjusted for inflation. By 2008, that number had climbed about 130% to roughly $6,500 a year — and that doesn’t include books or room and board.
The crux of the problem: Tuition and fees at public universities, according to the College Board, have surged almost 130% over the last 20 years — while middle class incomes have stagnated.
Here you can clearly see that the student loans are on a rise and for an American consumer repayment towards the student loan and mortgage comprises of 70% of their expenses.
Students today are now paying for a larger share of the benefit they receive.
In the current economic scenario failure of the education system (higher education) to offer employment to large chunk of population is a challenge. The buzz word in New Delhi is to offer vocational training which leads to employment.
To an extent one can say that higher education has gotten too expensive as the tuition fees invariable goes up every year and at the same time for certain pocket markets higher education is a bubble which will be corrected soon.
Have you ever wondered reviewing at the overall economic picture of the developing nations in comparison with the developed nations? These charts looks at a wide range of indicators and are truly stunning to see how the developing economies like India, China, Russia and Brazil are developing. In the next decade the Economic power will shift and the wealth will be generated by the successful entrepreneurs. Based on the below facts, time has come to change the perception of developing nations and start making the foundation for the opportunities which are growing.
The combined output of the emerging world accounted for 38% of world GDP (at market exchange rates) in 2010, twice its share in 1990. Based on the GDP emerging economies now account for over half of the global consumption of most commodities, world exports and inflows of foreign direct investment. Emerging economies also account for 46% of world retail sales, 52% of all purchases of motor vehicles and 82% of mobile phone subscriptions. Almost a quarter of the Fortune Global 500 firms come from emerging markets; in 1995 it was only 4%. The chart below shows more detail of how the economic clout of emerging economies has risen over time:
The above facts do have an impact on the Education Industry in the emerging countries too.
The Indian Education sector is estimated at $86 bn and is growing at 12% per year CAGR. The below table elaborates the Indian Education market size for various Education segments.
Further to the above facts the Indian Government will soon introduce the Foreign Educational Institutions (regulations of entry and operations maintenance of quality and prevention of commercialization ) bill which will change the Indian Education sector in India. On approval of this bill foreign institutions will be to offer degree courses legally in India and middle class / lower middle class students (300 million people in 2010 and estimated 550 million in 2020) will be able to benefit with good quality of Education which is universally acceptable.
Hence one can conclude that there is a wide gap that needs to be filled though the creation of Education opportunities and at the same time increase in disposable income leads to a huge market (approx 300 to 550 million in 2020) for the overseas Education provider to recruit students.